James Hansen recently said at 8:18 on a YouTube featuring “his keynote at ATLAS25,” “I will argue that we are on track for AMOC [(Atlantic meridional overturning circulation)] shutdown within a few decades. And in turn this will accelerate melting of Antarctic ice shelves and large sea level rise.” As a reminder, in my previous post I quoted Climate Policy Analyst David Spratt at 19:50 on that YouTube, “If the AMOC [Atlantic meridional overturning circulation] slows [enough] you’ll have cold periods in Scandinavia of minus 40 [minus 40 Fahrenheit] to [minus] 50 [ minus 58 Fahrenheit] degrees. I mean research scientists say agriculture will be nonviable in Ireland and the U K, and northwestern Europe.” What about 10 years from now, I thought, half way to Hansen’s concern for year 2045?
I asked ChatGPT to “Generate 10 fictitious climate news headlines in order of importance 10 years from now if big oil interests continue to dominate policy and COPs” since we have no reason to expect this will change. It replied:
Top 10 Headlines (Most to Least Significant) [in November 2035]
- “Global Temperatures Surge Past 2°C Mark; Scientists Declare Threshold for Irreversible Tipping Cascades Likely Passed”
Record heat pushes Earth into a new climatic regime.
- “West Antarctic Ice Sheet Enters Unstoppable Collapse, Driving Centuries of Guaranteed Sea Level Rise”
Major coastal cities begin long-term retreat planning.
- “Deadly ‘Heat Belt’ Expands Across South Asia and Middle East With Wet-Bulb Temperatures Surpassing Human Survival Limits”
Mass displacement accelerates as regions become intermittently uninhabitable.
- “COP38 Concludes With No Binding Fossil Fuel Phase-Out After Heavy Pressure from Major Oil States”
Negotiators express frustration as emissions continue to rise.
- “Global Food Crisis Deepens: Consecutive Harvest Failures Hit Breadbasket Regions Amid Mega-Droughts and Floods”
Wheat, rice, and maize markets experience unprecedented volatility.
- “Insurance Giants Fully Withdraw from Coastal Markets as Billion-Dollar Storms Become Annual Norm”
Governments scramble to create public insurance schemes.
- “Ocean Circulation Weakens Dramatically; North Atlantic Fisheries Collapse”
Marine ecosystems and coastal economies suffer as currents destabilize.
- “New Report: Methane Emissions from Fossil Infrastructure 3× Higher Than Industry Claims”
Regulators accuse oil and gas companies of systemic underreporting.
- “Youth Climate Movements Decline Amid Rising Repression and Legal Restrictions on Protest”
Civil society groups warn of ‘democratic backsliding linked to petro-politics.’
- “Oil Companies Announce Record Profits as Governments Increase Production Subsidies Despite Climate Extremes”
Public outrage grows, but policies remain unchanged.
After ChatGPT responded, I also thought it would be useful to explore solutions specifically for island nations. The best answer it gave was to imagine “What if A I Helped Negotiate the COP31 Climate Agreement?” because, as it said, “Right now, multiple groups (including many island nations) argue that: Climate negotiations are too slow[,] Human negotiators are too biased by national interests[, and] Science analysis is too complex for humans to parse in real time.”
Obviously, the “national interests” parts are unlikely to be sacrificed. However, the slow speed and complexity parts could be addressed.
It seems island nations have nothing to lose, and much to gain, by trying a multi-agent A I evaluation for A I cross-validation that honors model pluralism for fairness. More specifically, this approach would complement the need for “information integrity” noted in the United Nations’ “COP30: The key results,” increase speed of information gathering, add focus and clarity to increase speed and ability of negotiators’ minds seeking potential common interests, and would be more politically realistic at COP31 than a map for phasing-out fossil fuels about 83 countries supported at COP30, and about 70 nations resisted.